Stress Inversion in a Gelatin Box: Testing Eruptive Vent Location Forecasts With Analog Models

Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because the uncertain location future vents. A statistical-mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here, we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally surface excavations, observe air-filled crack trajectories. use observed arrivals sample distributions parameters describing state block, combining deterministic trajectory simulations Monte Carlo approach. While individual remain unconstrained, effectively retrieve their ratio successfully arrival points subsequent cracks.